Keith Kirkwood Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Keith Kirkwood

NFL · Player Props

Keith Kirkwood

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Detroit Lions · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Keith Kirkwood Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-250/+175).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -215 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +175.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a 4-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Saints to pass on 62.7% of their plays: the 4th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to see 133.8 offensive plays called: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 63.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

Keith Kirkwood's 16.2% Route Participation% this season marks a significant drop-off in his passing game utilization over last season's 51.4% figure.
As it relates to pocket protection (and the effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the New Orleans Saints profiles as the 4th-worst in football this year.
With a paltry 0.6 adjusted catches per game (5th percentile) this year, Keith Kirkwood ranks as one of the worst wide receivers in the game in the NFL.

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