Keenan Allen Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Keenan Allen

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Touchdowns

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 1:12 PM EST

Analysis

Keenan Allen Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+410/-495).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Colts to call the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
With an exceptional 18.5% Red Zone Target% (81st percentile) since the start of last season, Keenan Allen places as one of the wide receivers with the most usage near the goal line in the league.
Keenan Allen has accounted for a whopping 22.4% of his team's air yards since the start of last season: 77th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
Keenan Allen rates in the 76th percentile for WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive involvement) with an impressive 49.0 mark since the start of last season.
When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Colts profiles as the best in football since the start of last season.

Favors Under

Right now, the 3rd-most run-centric offense in the league near the goal line (48.0% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Indianapolis Colts.
The Indianapolis Colts have run the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 54.6 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Texans, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 30.3 per game) since the start of last season.
Keenan Allen's 62.8% Adjusted Catch% this season represents a remarkable diminishment in his pass-catching talent over last season's 68.2% figure.
The Texans pass defense has conceded the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (56.7%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (56.7%).