Keenan Allen Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Keenan Allen

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 1, 2026 7:18 PM EST

Analysis

Keenan Allen Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (+110/-131).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 49.5 @ -250 before it was bet down to 39.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Colts are expected by the model to run 65.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 7th-highest number among all teams this week.
Our trusted projections expect Keenan Allen to accumulate 6.9 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
Keenan Allen has been an integral part of his team's passing attack, earning a Target Share of 22.4% since the start of last season, which places him in the 85th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
In regards to air yards, Keenan Allen grades out in the towering 75th percentile among WRs since the start of last season, accumulating a monstrous 57.0 per game.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line grades out as the best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all air attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is suggested by the Colts being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Colts to pass on 54.0% of their chances: the 7th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
The Indianapolis Colts have called the 9th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging just 55.2 plays per game.
Indianapolis's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially inflated (and rushing stats reduced) due to playing the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We figure to be able to expect some correction with windier weather in this game.
Keenan Allen's 5.4 adjusted yards per target this season conveys a significant decline in his pass-catching ability over last season's 7.0 mark.