Keenan Allen Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Keenan Allen

NFL · Player Props

Keenan Allen

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Keenan Allen Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+123/-164).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +132 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 65.4 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Keenan Allen has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 23.6% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 92nd percentile among wide receivers.
Keenan Allen has posted a whopping 82.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 86th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Chargers are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
The Las Vegas Raiders defense has yielded the 5th-least TDs through the air in football to wide receivers: 0.71 per game since the start of last season.
The Las Vegas Raiders defensive ends rank as the 3rd-best unit in football since the start of last season when it comes to pass rush.

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