KaVontae Turpin Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

KaVontae Turpin

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Touchdowns

Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 8, 2026 9:12 PM EST

Analysis

KaVontae Turpin Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+841/-1086).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1086.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Dallas Cowboys as the 9th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 59.1% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
At the moment, the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in the league in the red zone (59.2% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Cowboys.
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.
As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense stats), the O-line of the Cowboys grades out as the 8th-best in football this year.
This year, the formidable Tampa Bay Buccaneers run defense has surrendered a feeble 0.25 touchdowns on the ground per game to opposing offenses: the 2nd-best rate in the league.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a huge 9-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 5th-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 29.28 seconds per play.
KaVontae Turpin, who has been given 7.7% of his offense's carries near the goal line this year (98th percentile), is in the unique position (for a wideout) of being involved in the Cowboys red zone running game.
After accumulating 23.0 air yards per game last season, KaVontae Turpin has posted significant losses this season, now boasting 4.0 per game.
KaVontae Turpin's 4.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 15.6.