KaVontae Turpin Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

KaVontae Turpin

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Touchdowns

Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 1:02 PM EST

Analysis

KaVontae Turpin Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+953/-1150).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Cowboys are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on throwing than their typical game plan.
The leading projections forecast the Cowboys to be the 2nd-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 62.5% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 60.1% red zone pass rate.
The predictive model expects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.9 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Dallas Cowboys have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 59.8 plays per game.

Favors Under

KaVontae Turpin's 5.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive usage) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 15.6.
The Dallas Cowboys offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.
With an impressive ratio of 0.05 rushing touchdowns per game (90th percentile), KaVontae Turpin places among the leading rushing TD-scorers in the NFL among WRs and TEs since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season, the formidable Houston Texans defense has conceded a feeble 56.8% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the smallest rate in the league.
The Texans defense has surrendered the 9th-fewest touchdowns through the air in the NFL to wide receivers: 0.75 per game since the start of last season.