Kareem Hunt Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Kareem Hunt

RB · Cleveland Browns

Carries

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 23, 2022 12:10 AM EST

Analysis

Kareem Hunt Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-174/+126).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -174.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Browns are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 2nd-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 54.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Browns to run the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Kareem Hunt has played on 45.9% of his team's snaps since the start of last season, ranking in the 82nd percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The Cleveland Browns will be starting backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Cleveland Browns have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which should result in increased pass volume, lower running volume, and improved passing offense performance when facing better conditions in this week's game.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-best DE corps in football since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.
The Cleveland Browns have been faced with a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.