Kalif Raymond Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Kalif Raymond

NFL · Player Props

Kalif Raymond

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving TD

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 5:56 PM EST

Analysis

Kalif Raymond Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+295/-518).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -494 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -518.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Kalif Raymond to be a much bigger part of his offense's passing game near the end zone this week (14.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (5.0% in games he has played).
Kalif Raymond's ball-catching skills have been refined this year, with his Completion% rising from 67.5% to 72.5%.
The Chicago Bears pass defense has yielded the 4th-highest Completion% in the NFL (70.6%) versus WRs this year (70.6%).
The Chicago Bears cornerbacks project as the 3rd-worst group of CBs in the league this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
Kalif Raymond has totaled significantly fewer air yards this year (39.0 per game) than he did last year (45.0 per game).
Kalif Raymond's 26.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 35.3.
The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

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