Kadarius Toney Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Kadarius Toney

NFL · Player Props

Kadarius Toney

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Kadarius Toney Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-155/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 6th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 63.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the league.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line ranks as the 9th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
Kadarius Toney has run a route on 22.2% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 13th percentile among wide receivers.
Kadarius Toney has been among the worst WRs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 0.3 receptions per game while checking in at the 1st percentile among wide receivers.
The Jacksonville Jaguars cornerbacks project as the 3rd-best collection of CBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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