Kadarius Toney Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Kadarius Toney

NFL · Player Props

Kadarius Toney

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Kadarius Toney Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Chiefs to be the 5th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Kadarius Toney's 2.2 adjusted catches per game this year shows a noteworthy boost in his pass-catching talent over last year's 0.2 mark.
Kadarius Toney comes in as one of the most reliable receivers in football, hauling in a terrific 75.2% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 81st percentile among wide receivers.
This year, the anemic Green Bay Packers pass defense has conceded a colossal 68.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 8th-worst rate in football.

Favors Under

This game's spread suggests a running game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 5.5 points.
At the present time, the 10th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Chiefs.
Opposing offenses teams have been hesitant to pass too much against the Packers, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 34.4 per game) this year.
Kadarius Toney has run a route on 24.0% of his offense's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 25th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
The Packers cornerbacks project as the 9th-best group of CBs in football this year in defending receivers.

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