Kadarius Toney Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Kadarius Toney

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Detroit Lions · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 8, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Kadarius Toney Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+120/-156).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -143 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.8 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Kadarius Toney to be much more involved in his team's pass game this week (13.3% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (6.2% in games he has played).
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
Kadarius Toney has been among the worst pass-catching wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging a measly 0.2 receptions per game while grading out in the 1st percentile among WRs.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down a measly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.