Kadarius Toney Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Kadarius Toney

NFL · Player Props

Kadarius Toney

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Kadarius Toney Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Chiefs to pass on 61.9% of their chances: the 3rd-highest clip among all teams this week.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to have 133.2 total plays run: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 7th-most in football.
Kadarius Toney's 19.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 11.5.
Kadarius Toney's 17.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season shows a a material progression in his pass-catching skills over last season's 0.0 mark.

Favors Under

With a 5.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a reliance on rushing than their normal game plan.
With a subpar 4.2 adjusted yards per target (3rd percentile) this year, Kadarius Toney has been as one of the bottom pass-catching WRs in the league.

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