Kadarius Toney Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Kadarius Toney

NFL · Player Props

Kadarius Toney

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 2:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Kadarius Toney Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 65.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to run the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.8 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Kadarius Toney has put up substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (15.0) this year than he did last year (0.0).
This year, the deficient Minnesota Vikings defense has surrendered a colossal 188.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing WRs: the 4th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on running than their usual approach.
Kadarius Toney has run a route on 22.5% of his team's dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 21st percentile among wide receivers.
As it relates to air yards, Kadarius Toney grades out in the measly 25th percentile among wide receivers this year, totaling just 10.0 per game.
Kadarius Toney has been among the least effective pass-catchers in the league, averaging a measly 4.68 adjusted yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 8th percentile among wide receivers
The Vikings safeties profile as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.

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