Kadarius Toney Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Kadarius Toney

NFL · Player Props

Kadarius Toney

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 21, 2023 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Kadarius Toney Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-110/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 63.6% of their plays: the 2nd-highest frequency among all teams this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to see 130.4 offensive plays run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 41.3 pass attempts per game against the Eagles defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
Kadarius Toney has accrued substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (16.0) this year than he did last year (0.0).
With a remarkable 6.65 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (91st percentile) this year, Kadarius Toney ranks as one of the top wide receivers in the game in the league in space.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Kadarius Toney has run a route on 23.6% of his team's passing plays this year, putting him in the 24th percentile when it comes to WRs.
When it comes to air yards, Kadarius Toney grades out in just the 19th percentile among wide receivers this year, totaling just 8.0 per game.
Kadarius Toney ranks as one of the least efficient pass-catchers in the league, averaging a mere 5.19 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 22nd percentile when it comes to wideouts
This year, the tough Eagles pass defense has conceded the least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing wideouts: a meager 2.9 YAC.

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