Juwan Johnson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Juwan Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Juwan Johnson

TE · New Orleans Saints

Touchdowns

New Orleans Saints vs Cleveland Browns · Week 9, 2026

Updated Nov 8, 2026 4:27 PM EST

Analysis

Juwan Johnson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+326/-335).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Saints to pass on 59.0% of their opportunities: the 9th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
The projections expect the New Orleans Saints to run the 2nd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.8 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The Saints have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 60.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Juwan Johnson's 79.9% Adjusted Catch Rate this season indicates a meaningful growth in his receiving prowess over last season's 75.9% figure.

Favors Under

With a 5-point advantage, the Saints are favored this week, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their normal game plan.
While Juwan Johnson has garnered 22.9% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be much less involved in New Orleans's passing attack near the end zone in this game at 12.5%.
After averaging 45.0 air yards per game last year, Juwan Johnson has been a disappointment this year, now boasting 27.0 per game.
Juwan Johnson's 26.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 38.5.
This year, the stout Cleveland Browns defense has surrendered a paltry 67.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 5th-best rate in the NFL.

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