Juwan Johnson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Juwan Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Juwan Johnson

TE · New Orleans Saints

Touchdowns

New York Giants vs New Orleans Saints · Week 6, 2026

Updated Oct 18, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

Juwan Johnson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+257/-277).

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 58.4% rate of passing the ball near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year, the 10th-most pass-heavy team in the league in this setting has been the Saints.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Saints are predicted by the projection model to run 65.4 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-most among all teams this week.
The 6th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Saints this year (a massive 61.6 per game on average).
Juwan Johnson's 84.1% Adjusted Catch Rate this year signifies a substantial boost in his receiving skills over last year's 75.9% mark.
Juwan Johnson grades out in the 92nd percentile among TEs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a stellar 0.60 per game.

Favors Under

While Juwan Johnson has been responsible for 25.9% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much smaller piece of New Orleans's passing offense near the end zone in this game at 16.7%.
Juwan Johnson has accrued significantly fewer air yards this year (35.0 per game) than he did last year (45.0 per game).
Juwan Johnson's 31.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 38.5.

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