Juwan Johnson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Juwan Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Juwan Johnson

TE · New Orleans Saints

Touchdowns

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 3, 2026 7:17 PM EST

Analysis

Juwan Johnson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+245/-257).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New Orleans Saints to pass on 59.4% of their downs: the 10th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
With a 62.6% rate of throwing the ball in the red zone (context-neutralized) this year, the 6th-most pass-focused offense in football in this setting has been the Saints.
Our trusted projections expect this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 136.0 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Saints have called the 3rd-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a massive 60.6 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Favors Under

While Juwan Johnson has received 30.0% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a much smaller piece of New Orleans's passing attack near the end zone in this week's game at 16.1%.
Juwan Johnson's 31.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive usage) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 38.5.
The Falcons defense has yielded the 3rd-fewest touchdowns through the air in football to TEs: 0.30 per game since the start of last season.

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