Juwan Johnson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Juwan Johnson

TE · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 7:57 PM EST

Analysis

Juwan Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+113/-117).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints have been the 8th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 60.8% pass rate.
The model projects this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.3 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 3rd-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a staggering 60.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
With an extraordinary 77.4% Route Participation% (89th percentile) since the start of last season, Juwan Johnson has been among the tight ends with the highest volume in football.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Saints are favored this week, implying more of a focus on rushing than their usual game plan.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.1 pass attempts per game against the Las Vegas Raiders defense since the start of last season: 4th-fewest in the NFL.
The Raiders pass defense has given up the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (72.5%) versus TEs since the start of last season (72.5%).