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Juwan Johnson

Juwan Johnson Receptions
Player Prop Week 6

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Juwan Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Saints will be rolling out backup quarterback Spencer Rattler in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.

The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 27.62 seconds per play.

The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.

Opposing offenses have averaged 43.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Buccaneers defense this year: 2nd-most in football.

Juwan Johnson's 88.6% Adjusted Catch Rate this year reflects a significant growth in his receiving skills over last year's 64.1% rate.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New Orleans Saints to pass on 53.8% of their plays: the 6th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.

Juwan Johnson has run fewer routes this season (55.4% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (67.1%).

The New Orleans Saints offensive line profiles as the worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative influence on all passing game stats across the board.

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