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Juwan Johnson

Juwan Johnson Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Kansas City Chiefs vs New Orleans Saints

Juwan Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-230/+172).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -176 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -230.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Saints are a giant 8-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.

The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.2 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 8th-most in football.

In this week's contest, Juwan Johnson is forecasted by the projection model to position himself in the 76th percentile when it comes to TEs with 3.5 targets.

While Juwan Johnson has accounted for 5.3% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a more integral piece of New Orleans's pass game in this contest at 11.0%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Saints to be the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the New Orleans Saints are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run only 61.8 offensive plays in this contest: the fewest on the slate this week.

When it comes to pocket protection (and the significance it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the New Orleans Saints grades out as the worst in the NFL this year.

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