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Juwan Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-108/-120).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -108 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -120.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Our trusted projections expect the Saints to run the 8th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.The Saints have run the 3rd-most plays in the league last year, averaging a monstrous 60.9 plays per game.This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.Juwan Johnson has run a route on 66.2% of his team's passing plays last year, putting him in the 83rd percentile among tight ends.The projections expect Juwan Johnson to accrue 4.6 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 84th percentile when it comes to TEs.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 5-point advantage, the Saints are favored in this game, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Panthers, averaging the fewest attempts in football (a measly 27.9 per game) last year.As it relates to pass-blocking (and the effect it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the New Orleans Saints ranks as the 5th-worst in football last year.With a feeble 64.1% Adjusted Completion% (8th percentile) last year, Juwan Johnson stands among the least sure-handed receivers in the league when it comes to TEs.When it comes to linebackers rushing the passer, Carolina's unit has been great last year, projecting as the 3rd-best in the league.
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