Juwan Johnson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Juwan Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Juwan Johnson

TE · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM EST

Analysis

Juwan Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+110/-143).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +125 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Saints offense as the 7th-fastest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.93 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Our trusted projections expect Juwan Johnson to earn 4.5 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 77th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Tampa Bay's collection of safeties has been atrocious since the start of last season, grading out as the 4th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Saints are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
Juwan Johnson's 23.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 30.4.
The Saints O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Juwan Johnson's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 67.7% to 58.8%.

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