Juwan Johnson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Juwan Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Juwan Johnson

TE · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Detroit Lions · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Juwan Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-150/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a 4-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Saints to pass on 62.7% of their plays: the 4th-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to see 133.8 offensive plays called: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 63.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

Juwan Johnson's 25.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 30.4.
As it relates to pocket protection (and the effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the New Orleans Saints profiles as the 4th-worst in football this year.
Juwan Johnson's ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 67.7% to 61.1%.

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