Juwan Johnson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Juwan Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Juwan Johnson

TE · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 3:56 AM EST

Analysis

Juwan Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+115/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the New Orleans Saints as the 10th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 60.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to run the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.8 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 63.8 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Falcons linebackers grade out as the 6th-worst collection of LBs in football this year in defending receivers.

Favors Under

With a RATE1-RATE2 point decrease in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) from last year to this one, Juwan Johnson has been featured much less in his offense's passing attack.
The Saints O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Juwan Johnson's 62.7% Adjusted Catch% this season represents an impressive diminishment in his pass-catching skills over last season's 67.7% mark.

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