Juwan Johnson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Juwan Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Juwan Johnson

TE · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Tennessee Titans · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Juwan Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: most in the league.
Juwan Johnson has run a route on 68.6% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 85th percentile among tight ends.
THE BLITZ projects Juwan Johnson to notch 4.5 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 84th percentile among TEs.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has yielded the 10th-highest Completion% in the NFL (73.1%) to tight ends since the start of last season (73.1%).

Favors Under

The Saints are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
The Saints have been the 6th-least pass-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 55.7% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 5th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 55.1 plays per game.
The Tennessee Titans safeties project as the 3rd-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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