Juwan Johnson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Juwan Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Juwan Johnson

TE · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 8, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Juwan Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+125/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New Orleans Saints will be rolling with backup QB Andy Dalton this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
Juwan Johnson has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (69.2% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (34.8%).
THE BLITZ projects Juwan Johnson to earn 3.7 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 75th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 57.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties profile as the 6th-best collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
The Baltimore Ravens pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

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