Juwan Johnson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Juwan Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Juwan Johnson

TE · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 4:45 PM UTC

Analysis

Juwan Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+150/-200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -190 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -200.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Juwan Johnson to garner 4.3 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 81st percentile among TEs.
Juwan Johnson's 26.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 14.2.

Favors Under

The New Orleans Saints have run the 7th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 57.6 plays per game.
The New Orleans Saints have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game performance when facing windier conditions in this game.
Juwan Johnson has been among the bottom pass-catching TEs since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 1.3 receptions per game while grading out in the 19th percentile among tight ends.
Juwan Johnson's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 63.2% to 42.6%.
The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has given up the 6th-lowest Completion% in football (65.8%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (65.8%).

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