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Juwan Johnson

Juwan Johnson Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons

Juwan Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+130/-165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -165 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -165.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

THE BLITZ projects Juwan Johnson to notch 3.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 79th percentile among tight ends.

The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has yielded the 9th-highest Completion% in the NFL (75.5%) vs. TEs this year (75.5%).

The Atlanta Falcons linebackers rank as the 8th-worst collection of LBs in football this year in covering receivers.

The New Orleans Saints offensive line has allowed their QB 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 5th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The New Orleans Saints have called the 9th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 55.3 plays per game.

The Atlanta Falcons pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season.

The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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