Juwan Johnson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Juwan Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Juwan Johnson

TE · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Juwan Johnson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+120/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +125 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a big 8.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Juwan Johnson has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (70.1% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (34.8%).
THE BLITZ projects Juwan Johnson to accrue 4.4 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among tight ends.
Juwan Johnson's pass-catching performance improved this year, averaging 2.7 yards per game vs a measly 1.1 last year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 58.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 9th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 10th-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 56.5 plays per game.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (68.6%) versus tight ends this year (68.6%).
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers profile as the 3rd-best group of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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