Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Juwan Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Juwan Johnson

TE · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 7:57 PM EST

Analysis

Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (+119/-142).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 49.5 @ -126 before it was bet down to 39.5 @ -142.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints have been the 8th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 60.8% pass rate.
The model projects this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.3 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 3rd-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a staggering 60.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
With an extraordinary 77.4% Route Participation% (89th percentile) since the start of last season, Juwan Johnson has been among the tight ends with the highest volume in football.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Saints are favored this week, implying more of a focus on rushing than their usual game plan.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.1 pass attempts per game against the Las Vegas Raiders defense since the start of last season: 4th-fewest in the NFL.
Since the start of last season, the tough Raiders defense has yielded a feeble 37.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends: the 4th-fewest in the league.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has shown strong efficiency against tight ends since the start of last season, allowing 7.05 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-fewest in the NFL.

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