Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Juwan Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Juwan Johnson

TE · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 8, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-105/-126).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 23.5 @ -126.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New Orleans Saints will be rolling with backup QB Andy Dalton this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
Juwan Johnson has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (69.2% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (34.8%).
THE BLITZ projects Juwan Johnson to earn 3.7 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 75th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 57.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Juwan Johnson's pass-game efficiency has declined this year, compiling just 7.24 yards-per-target vs a 9.20 mark last year.
Juwan Johnson has been among the weakest TEs in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a lowly 3.29 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 23rd percentile.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties profile as the 6th-best collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.

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