Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Juwan Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Juwan Johnson

TE · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

Cleveland Browns vs New Orleans Saints · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (+115/-153).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -134 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
Juwan Johnson has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (68.5% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (34.6%).
THE BLITZ projects Juwan Johnson to total 4.8 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 84th percentile among tight ends.
Juwan Johnson has notched far more air yards this year (38.0 per game) than he did last year (17.0 per game).
Juwan Johnson has totaled many more receiving yards per game (32.0) this season than he did last season (16.0).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 8th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 52.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 11th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have run the 10th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 54.9 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 26-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.

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