Juwan Johnson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Juwan Johnson

NFL · Player Props

Juwan Johnson

TE · New Orleans Saints

Receiving TD

New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 4:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Juwan Johnson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+405/-874).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +408 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +405.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the NFL.
Juwan Johnson has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 14.3% this year, which places him in the 84th percentile among TEs.
Juwan Johnson has totaled a whopping 23.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 77th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The New Orleans Saints have run the 7th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 57.6 plays per game.
The New Orleans Saints have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game performance when facing windier conditions in this game.
Juwan Johnson's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 63.2% to 42.6%.
The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has given up the 6th-lowest Completion% in football (65.8%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (65.8%).
The Minnesota Vikings defense has yielded the 9th-least TDs through the air in football to tight ends: 0.30 per game since the start of last season.

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