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Justin Watson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+115/-145).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -145.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to pass on 62.6% of their opportunities: the 3rd-greatest rate among all teams this week.Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally lead to better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume.The Chargers defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing offenses to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (34.7 per game) since the start of last season.When it comes to protecting the passer (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense statistics), the O-line of the Chiefs ranks as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 3-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this game, implying more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 124.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.Justin Watson grades out as one of the most unreliable receivers in the NFL, hauling in a mere 55.3% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, grading out in the 6th percentile among wide receiversSince the start of last season, the tough Chargers defense has surrendered a measly 63.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 10th-best rate in the NFL.The Los Angeles cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-best CB corps in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
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