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Justin Watson

Justin Watson Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

Atlanta Falcons vs Kansas City Chiefs

Justin Watson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+112/-148).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -148.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs as the most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 64.4% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 3rd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 131.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

As it relates to protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack stats), the offensive line of the Chiefs profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is suggested by the Chiefs being a 3-point favorite in this game.

Justin Watson is positioned as one of the most hard-handed receivers in football, catching a mere 53.6% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, grading out in the 5th percentile among wideouts

Since the start of last season, the fierce Falcons defense has given up a mere 62.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the 8th-best rate in the NFL.

The Falcons linebackers grade out as the 10th-best collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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