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Justin Watson

Justin Watson Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens

Justin Watson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 65.1% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game against the Ravens defense last year: most in the league.

The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's line implies a running game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 3 points.

In terms of a defense's impact on tempo, at 28.36 seconds per snap, the model projects the Chiefs to be the 6th-most sluggish in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time.

Justin Watson profiles as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the league, hauling in a measly 53.4% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, ranking in the 4th percentile among wideouts

Last year, the tough Ravens defense has surrendered a paltry 59.0% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 3rd-smallest rate in the league.

The Ravens safeties profile as the best collection of safeties in the NFL last year in covering pass-catchers.

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