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Justin Watson

Justin Watson Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

New York Jets vs Kansas City Chiefs

Justin Watson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-134/+104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +104 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +104.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Chiefs as the 8th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Justin Watson's 38.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 18.0.

The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Justin Watson's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% rising from 46.8% to 56.6%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chiefs are a big 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to run the 11th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Justin Watson has been among the weakest WRs in the league since the start of last season, averaging a mere 1.1 receptions per game while checking in at the 14th percentile among wide receivers.

The Jets pass defense has conceded the 5th-lowest Completion% in the league (62.9%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (62.9%).

When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, New York's CB corps has been outstanding since the start of last season, grading out as the best in the NFL.

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