Justin Watson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Justin Watson

NFL · Player Props

Justin Watson

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Watson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-180/+150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -160 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -180.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 64.6% of their opportunities: the 2nd-greatest rate among all teams this week.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Chiefs are expected by the projection model to run 65.5 total plays in this game: the 9th-most among all teams this week.
Justin Watson's 35.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 18.0.
Justin Watson's receiving skills have gotten better this season, accumulating 2.0 adjusted receptions compared to just 0.9 last season.
Justin Watson's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 46.8% to 52.0%.

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Bills defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL.
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Buffalo's CB corps has been excellent this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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