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Justin Watson
NFL · Player Props
Justin Watson
WR · Kansas City Chiefs
Receptions
Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 14, 2023 Updated Dec 11, 2023 12:21 AM UTC
NFL Props Justin Watson Receptions

Justin Watson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-180/+150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -160 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -180.

Favors Over
  • Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 64.6% of their opportunities: the 2nd-greatest rate among all teams this week.
  • Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Chiefs are expected by the projection model to run 65.5 total plays in this game: the 9th-most among all teams this week.
  • Justin Watson's 35.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 18.0.
  • Justin Watson's receiving skills have gotten better this season, accumulating 2.0 adjusted receptions compared to just 0.9 last season.
  • Justin Watson's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 46.8% to 52.0%.
Favors Under
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Bills defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL.
  • As it relates to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Buffalo's CB corps has been excellent this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the NFL.
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