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Justin Watson

Justin Watson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens

Justin Watson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -145.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to be the most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 65.1% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game against the Ravens defense last year: most in the league.

Justin Watson grades out in the 78th percentile when it comes to wide receivers last year with a colossal 24.4% of his offense's air yards accumulated.

The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's line implies a running game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 3 points.

In terms of a defense's impact on tempo, at 28.36 seconds per snap, the model projects the Chiefs to be the 6th-most sluggish in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time.

Justin Watson profiles as one of the least sure-handed receivers in the league, hauling in a measly 53.4% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, ranking in the 4th percentile among wideouts

With a feeble 2.10 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (13th percentile) last year, Justin Watson rates as one of the leading wide receivers in the league in the NFL in picking up extra yardage.

Last year, the tough Ravens defense has surrendered a paltry 59.0% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 3rd-smallest rate in the league.

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