Justin Jefferson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Justin Jefferson

NFL · Player Props

Justin Jefferson

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Touchdowns

Minnesota Vikings vs Buffalo Bills · Week 9, 2026

Updated Nov 9, 2026 8:22 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Jefferson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+144/-150).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings will be rolling with backup QB Carson Wentz in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Vikings are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
Our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.0% red zone pass rate.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Vikings to call the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings have run the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 54.9 plays per game.
This year, the fierce Bills defense has surrendered a paltry 67.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 6th-best rate in the league.

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