Justin Jefferson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Justin Jefferson

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Touchdowns

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 4:27 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Jefferson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+160/-170).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-focused offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 62.0% red zone pass rate.
Justin Jefferson has been an integral part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 27.8% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 97th percentile among wideouts.
Justin Jefferson has put up a colossal 84.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 87th percentile when it comes to WRs.
Justin Jefferson's 76.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive usage) puts him in the company of the best in football: 99th percentile for wideouts.
Justin Jefferson's 75.0% Adjusted Completion Rate this year represents a noteable growth in his receiving ability over last year's 59.2% figure.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings as the 10th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 54.6% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Vikings are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call only 60.3 total plays in this contest: the lowest number among all teams this week.
The lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Minnesota Vikings since the start of last season (just 51.6 per game on average).
The Vikings have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense results when facing windier conditions this week.
Since the start of last season, the tough Buccaneers defense has allowed a measly 62.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 7th-best rate in the league.