Justin Jefferson Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Justin Jefferson

NFL · Player Props

Justin Jefferson

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Touchdowns

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 8:27 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Jefferson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+174/-178).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Vikings as the 6th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 60.2% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Vikings to be the most pass-centric team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 65.9% red zone pass rate.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense last year: 10th-most in the NFL.
Justin Jefferson has been a key part of his team's offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 24.6% last year, which ranks in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to see only 124.5 total plays run: the 4th-lowest number out of all the games this week.
The Minnesota Vikings have run the fewest plays in football last year, totaling a measly 51.6 plays per game.
With a poor 58.9% Adjusted Catch% (22nd percentile) last year, Justin Jefferson rates as one of the worst possession receivers in football among wideouts.

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