Justin Jefferson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Justin Jefferson

NFL · Player Props

Justin Jefferson

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs Buffalo Bills · Week 9, 2026

Updated Nov 9, 2026 8:17 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings will be rolling with backup QB Carson Wentz in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Vikings are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
With an impressive 98.8% Route Participation Rate (100th percentile) this year, Justin Jefferson ranks among the WRs with the highest volume in football.

Favors Under

The model projects the Vikings to be the least pass-oriented team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.7% pass rate.
The predictive model expects the Vikings to call the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings have run the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 54.9 plays per game.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has given up the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (62.2%) vs. wideouts this year (62.2%).

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