Justin Jefferson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Justin Jefferson

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 4:27 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-125/+122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -144 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With an extraordinary 96.5% Route% (99th percentile) since the start of last season, Justin Jefferson ranks as one of the WRs with the biggest workloads in the NFL.
In this contest, Justin Jefferson is expected by our trusted projection set to place in the 96th percentile among wide receivers with 9.4 targets.
Justin Jefferson has been one of the best wide receivers in the game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 4.3 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 92nd percentile.
Justin Jefferson's 75.0% Adjusted Completion Rate this year represents a noteable growth in his receiving ability over last year's 59.2% figure.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings as the 10th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 54.6% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Vikings are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call only 60.3 total plays in this contest: the lowest number among all teams this week.
The lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Minnesota Vikings since the start of last season (just 51.6 per game on average).
The Vikings have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense results when facing windier conditions this week.
Since the start of last season, the tough Buccaneers defense has allowed a measly 62.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 7th-best rate in the league.