Justin Jefferson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Justin Jefferson

NFL · Player Props

Justin Jefferson

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 20, 2026 3:47 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-105/-119).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Vikings may take to the air less this week (and call more carries) because they be starting backup QB Carson Wentz.
At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of a focus on throwing than their normal game plan.
The predictive model expects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 133.0 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
Justin Jefferson has run a route on 96.3% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 99th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
In this week's game, Justin Jefferson is expected by our trusted projection set to land in the 98th percentile among WRs with 10.6 targets.

Favors Under

The Vikings have been the 10th-least pass-focused offense in football (in a neutral context) this year with a 51.7% pass rate.
The Minnesota Vikings have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling just 51.7 plays per game.
Minnesota's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially propped up a bit (and running stats reduced) considering playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We should be able to count on some correction with windier weather in this game.
Windy weather conditions (like the 20-mph being called for in this game) typically mean lessened passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and increased run volume.

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