Justin Jefferson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Justin Jefferson

NFL · Player Props

Justin Jefferson

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 7:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-125/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 67.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings have called the 9th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 59.9 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Justin Jefferson has run a route on 96.7% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 98th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the NFL.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass game metrics across the board.

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