Justin Jefferson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Justin Jefferson

NFL · Player Props

Justin Jefferson

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+103/-136).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ +111 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ +103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Jefferson to accrue 10.9 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.
Justin Jefferson's play as a receiver has improved this season, notching 7.4 yards per game compared to a mere 6.3 last season.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 6th-least in the league.
Justin Jefferson's 67.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 81.0.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Washington Commanders safeties rank as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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