Justin Jefferson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Justin Jefferson

NFL · Player Props

Justin Jefferson

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-145/+115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 65.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.

Favors Under

Justin Jefferson's 70.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 81.0.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on a mere 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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