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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Minnesota Vikings vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Justin Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -145.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.7% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
  • THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 4th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 64.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 132.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 9th-most in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Justin Jefferson's 70.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 81.0.
  • The Minnesota Vikings offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
  • The New England Patriots pass defense has given up the 5th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (61.9%) to wideouts this year (61.9%).
  • The New England Patriots cornerbacks project as the 6th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
  • The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on just 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

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