Justin Jefferson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

NFL · Player Props

Justin Jefferson

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs New England Patriots · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 25, 2022 1:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Jefferson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.7% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 4th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 64.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 132.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 9th-most in football.

Favors Under

Justin Jefferson's 70.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 81.0.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The New England Patriots pass defense has given up the 5th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (61.9%) to wideouts this year (61.9%).
The New England Patriots cornerbacks project as the 6th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on just 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.