Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Justin Jefferson

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 8:27 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 84.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 76.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 84.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Vikings are predicted by the model to run 65.6 total plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.
The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off.
This week, Justin Jefferson is projected by the projection model to slot into the 97th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 10.4 targets.
With a high 30.5% Target% (99th percentile) since the start of last season, Justin Jefferson stands as one of the wide receivers with the most usage in football.
When talking about air yards, Justin Jefferson grades out in the lofty 87th percentile among WRs since the start of last season, averaging a remarkable 81.0 per game.

Favors Under

With a 56.9% rate of throwing the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 7th-least pass-centric offense in football has been the Minnesota Vikings.
Opposing offenses teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Saints, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 31.2 per game) this year.
This year, the tough New Orleans Saints defense has given up a paltry 122.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts: the 4th-best in the NFL.
Since the start of last season, the formidable Saints pass defense has conceded the 4th-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing wide receivers: a puny 0.5 YAC.
As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, New Orleans's LB corps has been terrific this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in football.